Chapter 37: A Dire Threat

This is the crux of why Cao Cao is considered an outlier. Given his personality and scholarship, he was better suited to be a high-ranking official, a scholar, or a poet rather than a military strategist. If his innate military talent were scored out of 100, he would barely reach 60, trailing far behind natural-born geniuses like Li Shimin, Wei Qing, Huo Qubing, Xu Da, or Chang Yuchun. Yet, his capacity for learning was a staggering 90. Cao Cao is a military strategist who achieved a counter-attack through the sheer power of his learning.

Liu Bei, of course, was oblivious to Cao Cao’s true designs; he believed they had turned from enemies into friends. After all, he had formed an alliance with Cao Cao’s superior, Yuan Shao, so he assumed Cao Cao was naturally an ally as well. Had it not been for Xun Yu and Cheng Yu restraining him, Cao Cao might have successfully launched a sneak attack on the naive "Big-Eared Brother," as Liu Bei was currently lulled into a false sense of security.

Even so, Guangling remained untouchable. That Guangling was a persistent, nagging source of pain was indeed a significant problem. That Liu Bei could perceive this at all showed he possessed decent strategic vision. Unfortunately, his vision was not far-reaching enough; he could not see the deeper underlying issues.

It was time for Liu Feng to give his father a lesson.

"Father, your assessment is flawed. While Guangling is a major nuisance, it is merely a skin-deep irritation. To say nothing of the fact that we cannot afford to touch Guangling right now—not only for moral reasons but because it would invite unnecessary trouble—even if Yuan Shu were to enter Guangling, he still could not shake our hold on the Donghai and Xiapi commanderies."

Liu Bei nodded. Far from being displeased by his son’s rebuttal, he felt that Liu Feng was absolutely correct. The hearts of the people in Xiapi and Donghai were with him; even if Yuan Shu entered Guangling, he could not destabilize the overall situation. Since his own reasoning was faulty, Liu Bei wanted to know Liu Feng’s perspective: "Then, according to Feng’er, where does this fatal threat lie?"

Liu Feng selected a scroll from the pile beside him and spread it out before Liu Bei. It was a simple map of Xuzhou, and Liu Feng’s finger landed on the northernmost tip.

"Father, the fatal threat to Xuzhou is right here!"

Liu Bei squinted. The place Liu Feng pointed to was Langya Commandery.

"Langya?" Liu Bei was perplexed. Langya, situated at the northernmost edge of Xuzhou and controlled by Zang Ba and his peers, hardly seemed like a threat to his very heart. Liu Bei pondered for a moment, still feeling that the issue of Guangling was far more pressing than Zang Ba.

If nothing else, once Yuan Shu took Guangling, he would surely want to continue north to seize all of Xuzhou. A great battle between Liu Bei and Yuan Shu was inevitable. Yet, although Zang Ba was somewhat insubordinate, he remained quietly within Langya. They had not come to blows, nor had they even had a falling out. Moreover, Zang Ba did not seem to have great ambitions; he had previously been willing to submit to Tao Qian. Surely he, Liu Bei, was not inferior to Tao Qian?

Liu Bei voiced his thoughts to Liu Feng and waited for an explanation. Liu Feng nodded, acknowledging that his father’s view was not wrong, but rather incomplete. It was like the blind men touching an elephant: having grasped the leg, one might mistake it for the entire creature. The more detailed and accurate one's description of that leg, the further one drifted from the true nature of the elephant.

"Father, if we speak only of Xuzhou internally, you are not wrong. But since Guangling has already brought in Yuan Shu as an external enemy, why would you overlook the external enemy in Langya?"

Liu Feng’s words jolted Liu Bei into realization. Langya’s position was indeed critical; it sat deep between Qingzhou and Yanzhou, and was only a few dozen kilometers from Yuzhou. It was surrounded by three states. In a sense, Langya was subject to the influence of all three.

Liu Bei asked tentatively, "Feng’er, do you mean to say that Zang Ba has foreign support?"

Liu Feng nodded. "You are half-right, Father."

"Oh? How so?"

Liu Feng pointed to the map to explain. "Look, Father. North of Langya lies Qingzhou. Currently, Qingzhou is a battleground for Yuan Shao, Tian Kai, and Kong Rong. But in reality, even if Tian Kai and Kong Rong joined forces, they would be no match for the Yuan family. As far as I know, Yuan Shao has appointed Zang Hong as Inspector of Qingzhou and Yuan Tan as Commander of Qingzhou. Both are capable of pacifying the people and subduing the disobedient. If Tian Kai and Kong Rong do not flee voluntarily, they will surely be captured within this year or, at the latest, the next."

Liu Bei nodded thoughtfully. He was familiar with Yuan Tan, Kong Rong, and Tian Kai. Having dealt with them for years, he knew their capabilities well. Especially Yuan Tan—Liu Bei had suffered greatly at his hands. While in Pingyuan, he had fought against Yuan Tan alongside Tian Kai, losing battle after battle until he had lost the entire Pingyuan state. It was evident how formidable Yuan Tan’s military prowess was. Liu Bei had once envied Yuan Shao for having such a son. But now? At the very least, "Big-Eared Brother" felt his own precious son was far superior to that mere warrior-brute, Yuan Tan.

"Father, Qingzhou can hold out for at most two years. After that, it will inevitably fall to the Yuan family. If the Yuan family intends to continue south, Langya will be the first to bear the brunt. If we cannot resolve the Zang Ba issue and bring Langya under our control within two years, once Zang Ba defects to the Yuan family, Donghai and Xiapi will face the sharp edge of the Yuan army. The situation will be perilous."

Liu Bei looked at the map. Seeing the logic in Liu Feng’s words, his expression changed drastically. Before he could react, Liu Feng continued: "As I told you before, though Marquis Wen of Lu is a fierce warrior, he is brave but lacks strategy, and his actions are reckless. He is no match for the Governor of Yanzhou, Cao Cao. I have predicted that within two years, Cao Cao will achieve total victory and drive Lu Bu out of Yanzhou. Once Cao Cao reclaims Yanzhou and sets his sights on our state, with strategists like Xun Yu, Xi Zhicai, and Cheng Yu in his camp, it will not be hard for them to see the vulnerability of Langya. If Cao Cao wins over Zang Ba, Donghai and Xiapi will be under attack from three sides. How could you sit securely in our state then?"

As Liu Feng spoke, not only did Liu Bei’s face turn pale, but cold sweat began to pour down his forehead. Despite the biting winter wind outside, the "Big-Eared Brother" was drenched in sweat within the room. He could not fathom it. Just yesterday, Chen Deng had assured him that at least 300,000 shi of grain would be transported for use within the state before the year ended. Liu Feng had secured the full support of the Mi family, gathering enough supplies for agricultural colonization and even producing the curved-shaft plow. Furthermore, Zhao Yun and Tian Yu had been successfully retained, and Cao Bao had voluntarily ceded his private troops to align with him.

Everything seemed to be going well—not just well, but exceptionally well. How could it be that in just one night, according to his own precious son, his position in Xuzhou had become as precarious as eggs piled high?